Do you think that the Russian/Ukrainian war, which started on February 24, 2022, involved only firepower of weapons, military power and blood?

You're wrong.

When the US/EU and therefore NATO goes to war with a nuclear-armed nation like Russia, they are well aware that no amount of fire and blood on their hands will be able to bring that nuclear power to its knees. They are so knowledgeable that when the first nuclear bomb explodes, they previse that life will end up on a planet called Earth, never to come back.

What was one of the main factors that drove the US and EU into war so rashly and firmly?

Answer:

Marine insurances and its commercial consequences.

The cornerstone of the G7 nations' price cap on Russian oil, announced at the beginning of december, was a conditional ban on access to premier Western insurance and reinsurance companies.

In this article, the effect of maritime insurance in Russia/Ukraine and on possible future wars will be examined.

Let's go back to the 18th century.

A Brief History:

As a nation with a stronger naval power, Britain was the world's most potent maritime insurer during the Spanish Wars of Succession in the early 18th century.

During this war, Britain achieved to be a powerful state in the Mediterranean by capturing Gibraltarian and the island of Menorca from Spain. The British insurers, on the other hand, were unable to calculate one thing: the damage caused by warships to enemy ships and compensation for this damage.

This war invited the British insurers to a showdown. This was to prohibit the insurance of enemy commercial cargoes.

The opposing view argued that such a decision would jeopardize the credibility of British marine insurance.

It soon became clear that no foreign marine insurance provider could compete with the reliability, reputation and low premiums of British insurers.

In the event of a possible war, British politicians devised insurance restrictions aimed at American and French commerce.

For instance, during the War of 1812, the prohibitions were so effective that the cost of insurance exceeded eighty percent of the value of the cargo.

The British Navy discovered that financing and maritime trade, which required the transportation of strategic products to restrain enemy industry, would have to be prevented.

Today, the Americans, who took over the Empire from the British, use a similar logic: arming the West's dominant position in the global insurance industry to limit enemy supply lines.

Marine Insurances and the Five Troublemakers:

On November 16, 2022, our country discussed marine insurance and its significance.

At the time, the Republic of Turkey's Ministry of Transport and Infrastructure requested with an announcement, a confirmation letter from the Club Insurer (PandI) to which the ship was affiliated that the ship's insurance was still in effect. The application was launched 14 days later, on December 1, 2022. (My detailed article on this subject was published under the title “Tankers Waiting in the Black Sea”).

In the Black Sea and Marmara Seas, 20 tankers loaded with oil from Russia were badly caught.

This letter of confirmation could well have been requested before the ship entered the Çanakkale Strait from the Aegean Sea.

If securing the Turkish Straits was the goal, an empty tanker was just as dangerous as a loaded tanker.

Russia's oil exports had suddenly stopped. The pending vessels were unable to provide the insurance confirmation letter immediately.

Five countries of G7 control 90 percent of the world's marine insurance and reinsurance.

As can be seen in the title of the article, these countries are the five troublemakers of the insurance world.

USA, UK, Germany, France and Italy.

Had the goal been achieved? Absolutely.

Britain implemented its maritime insurance policies strictly in the 18th and 19th centuries.

The US/EU made the first sign that it would use this card in the Pacific, if necessary, with Russia's partial restriction of maritime trade.

China and Possible Maritime Insurance Barrier:

China imports the majority of its oil needs from Russia, and the insurance of Chinese ships is largely carried out by the five troublemakers.

The tension between China and Taiwan and the US/EU insurance ban against China in a possible war disturb Beijing. Prohibition of insurance to be implemented in times of crisis it will also help a blockade of strategic cargoes’ transportation.

For instance, if an insurance ban is added to the blockade to be implemented in the Strait of Malacca, China may be stuck in a difficult situation.

China obtains 80 percent of its oil through the Strait of Malacca.

The NSR (Northern Sea Route), which is formed as a result of Global Climate Change and melting sea ice, currently allows only LNG ships to sail due to the lack of sufficient water depth and sufficient width icebreaker ships on the route.

Beijing took steps to guarantee Russian energy and wheat last year by expanding its tanker fleet and looking for insurance outside of the five troublemakers.

China is searching for reinsurance outside the G7 nations but is aware that only three of the top 20 reinsurance companies worldwide are from non-G7 nations.

The biggest non-G7 reinsurer in the world, China Re, is only a fifth the size of the biggest reinsurer in the world, Munich Re.

China, meanwhile, is making efforts to expand its tanker fleet.

In August of last year, it was published in Lloyd's List that a Chinese shipowner had spent 370 million dollars to buy tankers that were used to transfer oil from ship to ship (transshipment) in order to conceal the true point of origin of sanctioned oil.

According to Lloyd'sList, China will grow up to 400 tankers as a result of this application.

In a possible crisis, China is well aware that the US will use its insurance weapon and has already begun to take precautionary measures.

In case Turkey has a strong democracy and an economy that inspires confidence in this process, it is highly likely that it will become one of the central countries in terms of insurance.

(In this article, Christopher Vassalo's article and my esteemed journalist friend Hasan Erel's article "China is preparing for economic war with the West" were used and excerpted.)