Along with the unfavorable events in the Black Sea, there are far too many other factors that trigger the crisis and cause it to worsen beyond our control. As a result, the war in Ukraine must end as quickly as possible, even if only with a ceasefire.

Is there any chance of a ceasefire?

For the time being, it appears that the United States will make the decision on Ukraine's behalf. After Russia’s being an alley in trouble, it is evident that Russia will not be easily left alone by the Biden administration. However, it is also evident that, despite its arms and material support, Ukraine has failed to achieve the expected success on the ground. The Ukrainian side, on the other hand, conveys its concerns at every chance that this aid is insufficient and, furthermore, that it is slowing. Ukraine believes that support for them will continue at least until the November 2024 elections in the United States.

Even so, what about the aftermath?

The path of the war, and maybe its outcome; it can influence the results of all sides' public opinion manifestations and the direction they will go.

As a matter of fact, it is interesting; Republican presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy claims that the United States intervention in Ukraine has strengthened the Russian-Chinese military alliance, and the only way to break that alliance and draw Russia to the American side is to give Putin what he wants.

This viewpoint stands in stark contrast to the opinions formed by the general public. However, the rising cost of war in Europe was perceived to be a trigger for social life, the economy, and the energy issue. The deepening of this situation could disrupt the harmony between the EU and NATO. It was noted that bankruptcy filings increased by 13.8 percent in Germany alone in August. In the first six months of 2023, the number of bankrupt enterprises reached 8 thousand 571. According to reports, the transportation, storage, and service sectors face the highest number of bankruptcies.

It might be challenging for the Democrats to defend the help given to Ukraine by the US if a favorable outcome is not reached before the 2024 Presidential elections. The manner in which they withdrew Afghanistan is clear. The U.S. public opinion continues to criticize the faults made. The discussions focus on inconsistencies in plans and implementations, as well as mistakes that are taken for granted as time goes on. For Ukraine, this is also likely to occur.

However, despite some murmurs, the ruling Democrats have no intention of peace negotiating with Russia. While idling the Russian front they can establish a new proxy front in Taiwan, this time against China. Furthermore, an anti-China hawkish group in the United States is currently attempting to establish the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor in opposition to China's “One Belt, One Road” project. Aside from Taiwan, there are efforts to set China against India, which has border disputes with China.

According to US authorities, the Ukrainian offensive, which began in early July, could endure another 30 to 45 days. Since this information was received by the agencies on September 10, it is expected that the situation will be reviewed and a new assessment will be made by the end of October.

From this point on, it is very important whether a new political and military initiative that will challenge Europe will create a social and economic rupture. Otherwise, at the end of this struggle, which could turn into a blind fight EU can exactly pay a terrible price for the Berlin Wall.

I don't suppose this risk will be taken. It would be strange if, despite the embargo, unidentified European customers were still buying oil from the Russian Shadow Tanker Fleet. Russia, on the other hand, announced that civilian vessels sailing Ukrainian ports would be considered potential military cargo carriers. With the exception of a Palau-flagged Turkish vessel, there was no sudden attack. If she does, she is aware that she won't be able to handle the possible similar situations in different seas, including the Shadow Tankers. Of course, if required, it is not a risk she can not take.

In general, the Russian side is displaying defensive reflexes in order to keep the situation under control for the time being, without exceeding the territorial gains it has accomplished thus far. It consequently severely damaged Ukraine's infrastructure and has kept doing so with missile attacks on Odesa. The Wagner issue and the posture of the Russian army might be forcing Russia to be cautious at some point, even if only temporarily. 

The US assessment of Ukraine's performance appears that a new route towards the end of October will be put forward. Regardless of the advantages, extending the war could be a Pyrrhic victory for Ukraine. It might lead to a management disagreement and a loss of face for Russia. Both situations mean different new problems.

 

References:

Petraeus, David, W. Kagan,Frederick, ‘‘Ukraine’s counter offensive might yet surprise critics’’, The Washington Post, August  24,  2023, https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/08/24/ukraine-counteroffensive-victory-breakout/  ( Last Access Date: September 06, 2023)

‘‘ZelenskySaysFuture of War in UkraineHinges on U.S. Presidential Election’’, The New York Times, September 08, 2023, https://www.nytimes.com/live/2023/09/08/world/russia-ukraine-news  (Last Access Date: September 10, 2023)

MidttunHansPetter, ‘‘West’s fear feeds Putin’ sambition: not arming Ukraine counter offensive risks wider war’’, Euromaidan Press August 21, 2023, https://euromaidanpress.com/2023/08/21/wests-fear-feeds-putins-ambition-not-arming-ukraine-counteroffensive-risks-wider-war/  ( Last Access Date: September 10, 2023)

‘‘Almanya'da şirket iflasları ocak-haziran döneminde yüzde 20,5 arttı’’, TRT Haber, September 13, 2023, https://www.trthaber.com/haber/ekonomi/almanyada-sirket-iflaslari-ocak-haziran-doneminde-yuzde-205-artti-795277.html  (Last Access Date: September 14, 2023)

‘‘ABD Genelkurmay Başkanı: Ukrayna'nın karşı saldırısında 30 günü kaldı’’, Euronews, September 10, 2023, https://tr.euronews.com/2023/09/10/abd-genelkurmay-baskani-ukraynanin-karsi-saldirisinda-30-gunu-kaldi (Last Access Date: September 20, 2023)

Krastev, Ivan, ‘‘Dünyadaki seçimler Ukrayna Savaşı’nın akıbetini şekillendirecek’’, Dünya Gazetesi, January 09, 2023,  https://www.dunya.com/kose-yazisi/dunyadaki-secimler-ukrayna-savasinin-akibetini-sekillendirecek/681349 (Last Access Date: September 10 , 2023)