The prolongation of the Russian-Ukrainian war; resulted in the questioning of its effectson other parts of the world. Because everyone hasa reckoning some where.The two most important places among them are the Arctic region and the Black Sea.It has started to be discussed in some Western sources how the Ukrainian war may impact and shape these regions. There has been an increase in publications in this area in the West.  That's why I wanted to take into account both regions simultaneously in light of recent developments for this reason. 

Some of you may be saying things like, "I don't care about the North Pole." But, The Ukraine War appears to be open to pretexts. Because the waters of the Arctic region and the Black Sea are two water areas that the West is compelled to fully enter. In one, the Russians' dominant attitude and investments in the northern routes, along with the natural obstacle experienced particularly between November and July of the year, and in the other the legal restrictions imposed by the Montreux Convention…This correlation can be carried to different extents as long as the Ukraine war continues. We must pay attention tot his in the Black Sea.

Let's take a look at the Arctic first.

Some expect that the war in Ukraine will impede Russian based civilian and military developments in the Arctic.The source of the conflict is energy. The Arctic gas, oil, and coal account for about 10-15 percent of the Russian economy. For the time being, what kind of political, military, economic, and even ecological issues may emerge from beneath the icebergs is on the table.The sanctions, as in many other areas, began to have an impact on the Russians' multinational economic and industrial consortiums on the Arctic coast.

Russian energy investments and social initiatives along the northern coast for the northern routes Project are quite extensive.There are three main oil and two main LNG terminals. However, some Western and Eastern foreign companies operating in these regions had a reluctance attitude to leave the region due to sanctions. Many of their activities are currently restricted. I don't think they could be more persistent. The Russians, on the other hand, had even launched speciall and campaigns for families in order to increase the Russian population along the vast northern coast. Now they are recruiting volunteers to send to war.

Russia is a member state of the Arctic Council as well.  Scientific collaborations such as climate change, fisheries, pollution, forest fire mapping and monitoring projects in the region, which are carried out under the control of the Council, are adversely affected. These have reflections on the economy of the region. 

However, there is one private Russian company in this region that is not subject to sanctions. Why? Because, here is extracted 44 percent of the world's palladium and 22 percent of high-quality nickel.

For the time being, there appears to be no decrease in military activities in the Arctic. However, it is known that some personnel from the Northern and Baltic bases were sent to Ukraine on a rotational cycle. While the some Western powers aim to Russian military contraction in Ukraine, they also aim to halt the progress of the Russian military force structure in the Arctic. However, the logistical support provided by the Russians to their elements in Syria stil continues through the Northern and the Baltic fleets. Some Western sources agree that the Russian armed forces deployed in Baltic and Arctic may be better in terms of personnel, equipments, and materials, than the Ukrainian army. In late October, their conventional and nuclear exercises in the Barents Sea were also a warning to the West.

So,what is about the result? Militarily, the Western coalition has not been able to advance beyond Barents. Ukraine-related sanctions affect negatively the Russian economy in this region. As the game gets longer, a halt to investments in the north might cause the Russians to take a closer step to China.

In response to this, the Russians may want to see how the winter damage to Europe as a result of the energy sanctions they are trying to impose in a controlled manner. It is as if this possible damage is aimed to create public opinion against Ukraine President Zelensky. Will public opinion in Europe change its attitude against Zelensky? It depends on how they spend the winter and any possible damage assessments... But Zelensky is insistent to demand more money and arms aid from the West. But the sources are not unlimited as well.

I believe the game has a critical period that can be maintained and controlled in dependently from Zelensky. This period may also make Zelensky discontented.  Eventually this period may end with a long-lasting ceasefire. It is noteworthy that German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's visit to China on November 04, and 24.9 percent share of a container terminal in the port of Hamburg will be transferred to a Chinese company. Despite the United States, they are attempting to avoid a recession in anyway possible. The Baltic energy and trade balance may have a different impact on the Ukrainian war and the Arctic. Otherwise, critical timeout in the north of the Black Sea may shift toward the worst-case nuclear scenario centered more in theArctic.For now, I don't suppose the parties want that. 

I think they will open a narrow path to a cat jammed in the corner. But it's stil unclear which cat will be trapped in which corner in this case.The reveal of the unlucky cat is the critical moment when the game time ends. It has not yet reached that point in time. This may not take too long. However, the problem in the Black Sea is not only war. So what is it?

Whether the issue turns to the worst or not, under the pretext of Ukraine, it seems that another ideational atmosphere is being prepared in the Black Sea against the possibility that the stucked cat is Russia.

For instance, a Liechtenstein-based think tank is called as “Geopolitical Intelligence Services GIS” published an article titled "Who will control the Black Sea?". The article published with the signature of an academic named Colleen Graffy, a former American diplomat; is claimed that the restrictions imposed by the Montreux Convention have hampered support for Ukraine and that the convention needs a revision. She claims that new contract must be agreed upon by 9 November 2026 in order to adhere to the proposed date of amendments after each five-year period outlined in the Convention; The proposal must be submitted by August 2026. Of course, there is a need a littoral state that will initiate a proposal for amending.

In addition, the scenarios presented by the American academic lady are based on Russian military failures. She wants a convention revision in all of them. At the last scenerio among them, although she thinks this scenario is highly unlikely givenTurkish resistance to any encroachment on its sovereignty she claims that the Turkish Straits are no longer treated as a separate legal regime under the Montreux Convention but fall under the rules on international straits as set out in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea.

It seems like clearly,oursore spot startedto be touched. We should put our will against such evaluations by presenting a calm and patient approach by using our academic and political power first. This should not be referred to as merely an article. Weneedto be cautious and consider where the course of events will evolve. As in the case of Germany, everyone is busy with taking care of themselves. So far, a balanced policy has been pursued between the two warring parties. Of course, we are on nobody's side here. However, we must pay attention to various and dangerous games.

References:

Humpert, Malte, ‘‘From Ukraine to the Arctic: Russia's Capabilities in the Region and the War'sImpact on the North’’, High North News, September 28, 2022, https://www.highnorthnews.com/en/ukraine-arctic-russias-capabilities-region-and-wars-impact-north (Last Access Date:October 15,2022)

Wishnick, Elisabeth, Dr., Carlson, Cameron, Dr., ‘‘The Russian Invasion of Ukraine Freezes Moscow’s Arctic Ambitions’’, Journal of Indo-Pacific Affairs, October 03, 2022, https://www.airuniversity.af.edu/JIPA/Display/Article/3172713/the-russian-invasion-of-ukraine-freezes-moscows-arctic-ambitions/( Last Access Date : October 15, 2022).

Gontmakher, Evgeny, ‘‘Russia’sArcticeconomy is heading for decline’’, GIS Reports Online, October 21, 2022, https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/russia-arctic-economy/  (Last Access Date: October 22, 2022).

Gouveia, Filipe, ‘‘Russian Coal Exports Fall 7.0% As EU Sanctions Bite, Tonne Miles Up’’, BIMCO, October 20, 2022, https://www.bimco.org/news-and-trends/market-reports/shipping-number-of-the-week/20221020-snow  (Last Access Date: October 22, 2022).

Nilsen, Thomas, ‘‘Russia step supmilitary posturing in the Arctica head of NATO’s nuclear drill’’, The Barents Observer, October 16, 2022, https://thebarentsobserver.com/en/security/2022/10/russia-escalates-arctic-military-poseur-ahead-natos-nuclear-drill (Last Access Date: October 26, 2022).

Ajdin, Adis, ‘‘Germany greenlights COSCO’s Hamburg deal’’, Splash247, October 27, 2022, https://splash247.com/germany-greenlights-coscos-hamburg-deal/  (Last Access Date: October 27, 2022).

E. Lee, Carol, Kube, Courtney, De Luce, Dan, ‘‘Biden lost temper with Zelenskyy in June phone call when Ukrainian leader asked for more aid’’, NBC News, October 31, 2022, https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-lost-temper-zelenskyy-phone-call-ukraine-aid-rcna54592  (Last Access Date: November 01, 2022)

Graffy, Colleen, Prof., ‘‘Who will control the Black Sea?’’, GIS Reports Online, October 11, 2022, https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/black-sea-russia-turkey/   (Last Access Date: October 20, 2022).