According to some remarks on the Hamas-Israel war; There are analyses that the Gaza Strip is going to be divided into three parts by Israel and that the contacts among Hamas units may be cut off. While conducting a three-part tactical analysis of Gaza, it is important to consider the strategic situation of how far the Middle East and even the world can be divided.

Israel's inhumane and obstinate stance makes the issue inextricably deadlocked. Her style reveals a settler conception of modernity based on colonialism and despotism. As the resistance against her becomes stronger, the dose of violence she uses increases. Of course, this situation is not sustainable.

Otherwise; there's a likelihood that worries about the Hamas-Israel conflict will extend to fields of other groups. Direct interventions by the Iranian-backed Hezbollah from the north have begun to be seen, albeit to a lesser level. Nevertheless, Houthi attacks, which started further south off the coast of Yemen, have become critical. Following the Houthi group's long-range missile tests against Israel in Yemen, missile and drone attacks on merchant ships in the Red Sea gained attention.

All right, why do Houthis get involved in this situation? Let's try to look at this matter from a different perspective.

In 2021, following their attacks on vital industrial facilities in Yemen, the United States took Houthi name off the list of foreign terrorist groups. However, the Houthis have increased their attacks on the Red Sea this time.

There are comments that this faction which rebelled against the official Iranian-backed administration, may seek legitimacy in the eyes of Arab public opinion over the Palestinian issue. It would be optimistic to expect Arab countries to be pleased with the attacks on some tankers and container-type merchant ships, even if they were sailing toward Israeli ports.

However, several indications show that these attacks were preceded by extensive preparation.At the end of 2022, it's reported that some small-tonnage boats seized by warships of the US 5.Fleet transferred tons of ammonium perchlorate, a component used to produce explosives and rocket fuel from Iran to Yemen in the Gulf of Oman. With the benefit of hindsight, it's a mystery how the US and Israeli intelligence would have interpreted such actions.

For an Iran-Hamas self-interested coalition what benefit can the Houthis achieve if they attack Western merchant ships from the south? Furthermore, the depth of the relationship between Iran and Hamas may not be as deep as it seems. Halid Maşal, the former leader of Hamas, has made statements about why they are obliged to Iran.  As a result, there appears to be no rational reason for the Houthis, who face international isolation even if supported by Iran, to intervene.

With the attacks, certain international maritime companies have temporarily suspended their voyages in the Red Sea; in the short and medium term, this means that alarm bells are ringing in terms of maritime transport. Becoming unsafe situation of The Bab al-Mandeb passage means that in the north, the Suez Canal is partially inoperable. It is stated that more than 50 commercial ships have already shifted their course to the Cape of Good Hope. This means a container shortage, increased freight charges, and increased food and energy prices.

It is evident that Hamas and Iran gain nothing from the Houthi attacks, which may have these effects. For the time being, I believe there could be two possibilities in this heavily foggy atmosphere that could be dangerous.

First, there is the prospect of Russia. It appears that Zelensky's backing and confidence from the West are evaporating in Ukraine. In the next process; Russia will want to prevent or delay the West's probable future initiatives in Ukraine. The opening of a new front in the Middle East following Gaza will have a profound impact on the economy; it might put a brake on support for Ukraine. It is known that the Russians have a sphere of influence in Yemen through the Houthis.

The United States is the second possibility. In the Pacific, Gaza, and Ukraine, the US is finding it difficult to carry out these policies. Worldwide capital could be significantly impacted by another Red Sea expedition. In that case, a mise en scene might have been required to assist global capital in exerting pressure on the Israeli government, which is still insistent on attacking. The Western economy might be shaked by an increase in risk at the Bab al-Mandeb strait. Considering the presence of Chinese naval units in Djibouti, the Houthis' action may make Israel and other European nations more amenable to American policies.

In terms of the possible consequences of the attacks on Gaza, even if the first possibility is considered reasonable, I believe that the second possibility is stronger.

While this is taking place in the most southern region of the Middle East, we may need to read a different regional picture in light of the treacherous martyrdom of twelve of our soldiers in the north. This terrorist attack, which we deeply saddened, appears to be a reaction to our support for Palestine. Nonetheless, there appears to be an effort to simultaneously accomplish a number of political objectives in the Middle East's north and south, with disparate mise en scene throughout the region.

If you pay attention to this circumstance, you will notice that the outcomes are reflected in the seas and vital straits. Looking at the issue from this perspective; it is possible that new and distinct security formations and naval force units will emerge in the Eastern Mediterranean and Indian Sea arcs. Furthermore, there is a concerted effort in this direction. By citing marine shipping security, these power units can transform into an apparatus that will facilitate some shaping over time in maritime jurisdiction areas.

Consequently, a conflicting fault line that runs north-south from Syria to the coast of Somalia was formed. The fractures and stresses in each fault segment connecting the line are of different intensities. A significant break in a whole line could have tragic effects.

Could it be that the first sign of this is these unconscious and irrational attacks on the northern and southern flanks of the Middle East, while Gaza is being razed to the ground? Only time will tell. The course of these attacks on the edges of the region may change depending on how long the conflict in Gaza lasts.

Finally, I wish God's mercy on our martyred soldiers and patience for their families, as well as ease and success in their duties for Turkish Armed Forces personnel in the region.

 

References:

‘‘ABD, Yemen'e patlayıcı taşıyan tekneyi batırdı’’, 7Deniz, November 15, 2022, https://www.7deniz.net/abd-yemene-patlayici-tasiyan-tekneyi-batirdi (Last Access Date: December 10, 2023)

İleri, Kasım, ‘‘ABD, Yemen'deki Husileri yabancı terror örgütü listesinden çıkardı’’, Anadolu Ajansı AA, February 12, 2021.https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/abd-yemendeki-husileri-yabanci-teror-orgutu-listesinden-cikardi/2143035 (Last Access Date: December 17, 2023)

Farid Mahmoud Abdullah, Mohammad, Gülay, Zeynep Tüfekçi,‘‘Süveyş Kanal ıİdaresi: 19 Kasım'dan bu yana 55 geminin rotası Ümit Burnu'na yönlendirildi’’, Anadolu Ajansı AA, December 17, 2023, https://www.aa.com.tr/tr/dunya/suveys-kanali-idaresi-19-kasimdan-bu-yana-55-geminin-rotasi-umit-burnuna-yonlendirildi/3085144 (Last Access Date: December 18, 2023)

‘‘Çin'in tam operasyonel hale gelen Hint Okyanusu'ndaki deniz üssüne savaş gemisi  demirledi’’, Sputnik, August 18, 2022, https://sputniknews.com.tr/20220818/cinin-tam-operasyonel-hale-gelen-hint-okyanusundaki-deniz-ussune-savas-gemisi-demirledi-1060099783.html (Last Access Date: December 10, 2023)